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Vertical · Mining · Case study

Validating a life-of-business mine plan with an agent-based simulation twin

A 2026 Life-of-Business Plan called for a 15% production uplift while integrating autonomous haulage. Oxygen modeled the entire load-and-haul network to answer one question: will the plan hold — in 2027, and in 2031?

+13.8%
More material moved than plan, in the improvement case
53% → 92%
Chance of hitting plan — before vs after improvements
15%
Production uplift under test
2027 / 2031
Evaluation horizons, with AHS integration
01 · The challenge

Static plans can't see dynamic constraints

Long-range mine planning struggles to anticipate fleet bottlenecks, dynamic operational constraints, and seasonal variation as operations scale. The plan targeted a 15% uplift across two evaluation horizons — 2027 and 2031 — while integrating Autonomous Haulage Systems. Spreadsheet assumptions couldn't say whether it was feasible.

02 · The solution

A twin calibrated against the real fleet

The site's entire load-and-haul network was rebuilt inside Oxygen — every truck and shovel simulated individually, behaving the way it does on site.

CalibrationTravel times, load cycles and downtime checked against the site's real fleet data — so the model moves like the real fleet.
SeasonalityDistinct wet- and dry-season profiles for payloads, spotting times, dump profiles and haul distances.
03 · Results — the chance of hitting plan
Baseline With improvements
PLAN P(100) P(0) 53% 92% TOTAL MATERIAL MOVEMENT → CHANCE OF HITTING PLAN · 2027

In plain terms: each curve shows the chance of moving at least a given amount of material. Read at the plan line — today's setup gives a 53% chance of hitting plan; with the improvements, 92%.

53% Today's setup: a coin flip Modeled on how the fleet actually performs, the plan holds only about half the time — a coin flip, not a commitment.
92% With improvements: near-certain, +13.8% If the fleet hits its planned availability and usage targets, output rises 13.8% above plan — and hitting plan becomes near-certain.
2031 The 2031 fleet gap, quantified Once key loading machines retire, even a fleet hitting its targets is back to a coin flip — the gap is now a number, not a hunch.
04 · Value delivered
Risk, quantified

Odds replace assumptions

The board sees a range of outcomes with odds attached — not a single hopeful number.

Roadmap, prioritized

Shovel availability named the #1 lever

Site management received direct improvement targets, ranked by simulated impact on plan confidence.

Capital, optimized

Exact fleet additions, no over-allocation

The precise truck and shovel additions needed to de-risk long-term expansion — and nothing beyond them.

Ask your own questions of a mine that already exists.

The pre-configured mining model is live — load-and-haul network, seasonal profiles, AHS fleet. Scoping call to number: one week.

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